TCS Share Price has fallen due to the increase in H-1B visa fee: What Indian investors must know

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) share price(TCS Share Price) fell about 2.75 percent on September 22, 2025, moving around [?]3,082 per share, as markets reacted to a major increase in the U.H-1B visa costs. The steep decline in prices occurred on large volumes with investors responding to their anxiety as to the impact of such policy on the business model of TCS and other Indian IT giants.

As TCS has good fundamentals, this action by the U.S. has stirred up anew fresh geopolitical and policy risk in the future of the Indian IT sector. This blog discusses the cause of this drop, what the technical and analysts are saying about it and how this could affect the overall sector in the short and long term.

What is the new rule and why the market is reacting

• A new H-1B visa application is now subject to a one time fee of US $100,000 (a rough estimation of ₹88 lakh in Indian currency). In the past, the fees were significantly lower (between several thousands of dollars).
• The U.S. side has the intention of deterring foreign hiring through H-1B encouraging the companies to instead train and hire U.S. graduates.
• Notably, the fee increase is imposed on new H-1B petitions submitted after some date; old visa holders or renewal is not subject to the immediate change.

Short-term Market Effect and share price of TCS

• TCS stock plummeted approximately 2.75 reaching intraday lows and then showed some recovery indicating uncertainty among the investors. (In your summary price fell out of ₹3,169 to ₹3,082.)
• The wider Nifty IT index was driven down into the red losing 2-3 per cent with the mid-cap and smaller names losing even more.
• When charges such as these are altered investors fear raised charges, reduced margin and altered methods of hiring, which can all consume profits.

Technicals & Valuation: Is TCS Really Cheap Now?

The summary you provided contains much technical measures, some of which are consistent with what analysts are talking about, and some of which might require revision. According to the recent market commentary:

• The TCS and its competitors are likely to be subject to margin pressure, as many analysts discuss. It will depend on the extent to which they are able to transfer the new cost to clients, or how they can deficit it through other measures (offshoring, local hiring, subcontracting).
• The company (TCS) has been lessening its reliance on H-1B visa holders; it already employs a huge proportion of its US labor force domestically. Therefore, the policy change is indeed material, yet TCS is more capable of the impact than most smaller companies.
• There are support zones of TCS stock in the view of some technical analysts. According to the summary which you gave ₹3,128 in support, ₹3,178-₹3,201 in opposition. On the new fall-backs and past trading ranges, these levels appear probable.
• Such valuation metrics as P/E, dividend yield etc. are the major considerations. Although as I do not have the updated P/E of the company in the public sources as at today as per the present figures, analysts are indicating that though the risk is present, TCS is still rather under-valued due to its size, diversified services, large base of clients and offshore capability.

Analyst Sentiment & Government / Industry Responses

• The opinions of analysts are split between pessimistic but not negative in the short term. A lot are anticipating a knee-jerk response with the Indian IT stocks: single figures declines in large caps such as TCS and higher declines in mid-caps.
• Others, in their turn, find a silver lining in the clarifications that the U.S. authorities gave regarding non-retrospective application and that it is only new applications that were impacted that provide companies with time to change strategies.
• The Indian government has been concerned and it has raised their eyebrows pointing out to possible humanitarian effects, derailment of families, and effect on talent movement and collaboration between the two nations. There is a likelihood that industry bodies will lobby to be revised or exempted.

Is this going to cause Structural Shifts in Indian IT?

Probably yes, over time. Some projected shifts:

1. More Local Hiring in the U.S. The firms will probably employ a greater number of the U.S. residents or citizens in on-site positions, instead of inviting workers on H-1B visas. This would lower risk in visas and raise cost of local wages.
2. Greater Focus Is Paid to Offshore Delivery Models Former onsite work that was performed under H-1B will probably be moved back to India or other low-cost locations. This can negatively affect onsite revenue but can be used to their advantage in case it is effectively managed.
3. Hybrid / Near-shore Models To ensure reduced sentiment risk, Indian IT companies may seek near-shore substitutes (Canada, Latin America) or establish more global delivery centres to take care of U.S. customers.
4. Pricing Pressure & Negotiations with Clients The clients can insist on cost efficiencies; the IT companies will have to bargain on the terms of the contracts perhaps absorbing some of the new expenses just to secure business.

Short vs Long-Term Perspective

The Implication of this to TCS in Particular

In what little is known to date, a summary of your market observation in a nut shell:

• TCS is comparatively in a good position: massive size, diversified services delivery and good offshore delivery. The lessening reliance on new H-1B visas helps.
• It has a high amount of revenue in the U.S., and therefore, changes in the utilization of visas or onsite deployment will be important. This would require TCS to change hiring, delivery and contractual models.
• The decrease in the stock although painful, could be a corrective action since investors redefine risk. Assuming the levels of support do not subside (i.e. in the area of ₹3100- ₹3200 based on charting tools) it would stabilize. However, violation of those supports may provide opening of risk of even more downside to previous lows.
• To investors, dividend yield, growth of earnings per share and long-term strategic actions (in AI, cloud, offshore services etc.) will be the important factors to monitor.

Lessons to the Indian Investor

• There is no reason to panic sell particularly when you have a long-term horizon. It is a policy shock, rather than an indicator of failure in business among many large companies.
• Assess exposure: In case your portfolio is highly tilted towards mid-cap IT companies that are more dependent on visa as a form of onsite work, it has greater risk.
• Look at clarifications in policies: There are some cases when the rules are revised, litigated, or changed. As an example, are the renewals of existing visa holders exempt, are there exceptions, etc.
• Diversification: A variety of options that either include within the tech industry (some less exposed) or to other industries not associated with tech as a risk hedging strategy.
• Target companies that have high margins, offshore delivery, and international presence – they are more likely to survive head winds.

Conclusion

Extensive news is the U.S. increase on H- 1B visa fees of US 100, 000 that has shook the Indian IT industry. The share price drop of TCS (approximately 2.75 to approximately ₹3,082) indicates the immediate panic in the markets as well as the hesitation of how much of this new cost can be internalized as compared to being externalized. Although the short term is most probably going to be turbulent, to some extent bearish, the long run to medium term forecast of well-managed organizations such as TCS is guarded optimistic as long as they can be flexible.

This is a period to be informed, closely monitor policy changes in the U.S. and not hype but quality as far as the Indian investor is concerned. These risks exist but so do the opportunities to those that are able to sail through.

Also read : NPCI Aadhaar Link Bank Account Online: 2025

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